Coal exports in the United States are projected to rise in April and May compared with last month's forecast as a result of the higher-than-expected exports of metallurgical coal in February and the clean-up of the Baltimore port, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
Most of the metallurgical coal in the U.S. comes from the Appalachian region, with 20% of it exported through the Baltimore port. Exports of U.S. metallurgical coal for April and May are expected to be 8 million short tons, up 13% from the previous month's expectation, according to EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on May 7.
The export of metallurgical coal was expected to slow down after the Baltimore port closed due to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in late March. Therefore, in April, EIA lowered the expected offtakes for April and May by 33% and 20% from the March expectations.
However, with efforts to clear the Baltimore port progressing, the report predicted the U.S. coal exports for April and May this year to be 13 million short tons, an increase of 9% from April's expectation.
The expected U.S. coal exports for 2024 have been raised from the previous month's anticipation. The report estimated coal exports to reach 98.70 million short tons (89.54 million tonnes) in 2024, indicating a 1.1% decrease from 2023 and 5.31% lower than April's expectation of 94.50 million short tons.
Exports of thermal coal are projected to be 49.60 million short tons, up 2.27% year on year, while metallurgical coal exports are expected to reach 49.10 million short tons, down 4.29% from the previous year. Coal exports are forecast to reach 105.80 million short tons in 2025, up 7.19% year on year.
U.S. coal exports are expected to decrease to 21.70 million short tons in the second quarter this year, down 10% on the year and 17.50% quarter on quarter. The export of metallurgical coal is expected to be 11.70 million short tons, falling 12.70% from last quarter, while that of thermal coal is expected to be 9.90 million short tons, down 23.3%.
Regarding production, the report estimated U.S. coal output to be nearly 500 million short tons, higher than the previous month's expectation of 485.20 million short tons, but a decrease of 14.10% from 581.60 million short tons in 2023. U.S. coal production is expected to be 493.60 million short tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.16%.
In addition, U.S. coal consumption is forecast to drop from 426.50 million short tons in 2023 to 410.70 million short tons in 2024. Coal consumption in the power sector is forecast to slide 3.64% year on year to 373 million short tons, while that in retail and other industries is anticipated to be 21.40 million short tons, down 9.32%.
In 2025, U.S. coal consumption is expected to be 385 million short tons, down 6.20% year on year. The electricity sector will consume 346.50 million short tons of coal, while the retail and other industries will use 21.40 million short tons.
The report also said that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2024 are projected to edge down 0.23% from a year earlier. Specifically, CO2 emissions related to coal combustion will decrease 3.98% on the year. In 2025, energy-related CO2 emissions are forecast to decline 0.84% compared to the preceding year.
(Writing by Harry Huo Editing by Riley Liang)
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